Dusty Baker wasn’t given a real shot in Chicago.

“What? Huh? Are you serious?”

I can hear what your saying (or screaming), but hear me out. Dusty Baker inherited a fairly talented team with good, young pitching as well as a few decent hitters. Dusty signed on with the Cubs before the 2003 season and made a miracle run through the NL Central on the strong pitching of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Dusty took the Cubs to the brink, coming within five outs of the World Series. During the season Jim Hendry got Dusty a few pieces to the puzzle, including Kenny Lofton, Randall Simon and Aramis Ramirez.

And that was just about it in way of financial support for Dusty.

In 2003 the Cubs got as far in the playoffs as they ever had. They won their first playoff series in 95 years and nearly won their first pennant since 1945. So, by all assumption, this was a fairly decent team. Sure, they only won 88 games, but it was a good foundation for the Cubs to build on.

In the off-season following the playoffs Cubs GM Jim Hendry added Greg Maddux to replace Shawn Estes, Derrek Lee to replace Randall Simon/Hee Soep Choi, Michael Barrett to replace Damian Miller and Todd Walker to platoon with Mark Grudzielanek. This, combined with a healthy Corey Patterson patrolling center field and a full year of Aramis Ramirez should have led to a strong year for the Cubs, right?

Wrong. The Cubs fell upon some bad luck and injuries. Kerry Wood got hurt and was limited to just 22 starts. Mark Prior started the season hurt and started just 21 games. Alex Gonzalez, the slick fielding shortstop, got hurt and was replaced with Rey “0-fer” Ordonez and Ramon Ortiz. The Cubs obviously had a problem, and the Cubs had to do something. Jim Hendry evaluated the talent available and ended up making a block buster type deal that landed the Cubs Nomar Garciaparra, a good fielder and great hitting shortstop from the Red Sox. It seemed as though Dusty had his talent and would make another run through the playoffs.

Instead, Nomar got hurt and was replaced with Neifi Perez and the Cubs fell short of the playoffs thanks to a surging Astros team that had Cubs Killer Carlos Beltran.

This is where it gets nasty. The Cubs let Moises Alou go because they thought he’d be too expensive, instead going with Jeromy Burnitz. Instead of sinking the money into Alou, the Cubs paid Nomar to stick around for another year and it turned out to be a horrible idea. Nomar played in just 62 games and left after the season was over. Mark Prior got drilled with a line drive off of Brad Hawpe, Kerry Wood got hurt, and the season was lost despite an MVP type season from Derrek Lee.

The foundation was crumbling and Jim Hendry had to do something.

The off-season following the 2006 season was a critical one. The Cubs had to add a leadoff hitter and a shortstop. Rafael Furcal was the obvious choice for the Cubs, but once again money played an issue and the Cubs were outbid by the Dodgers. Oddly enough, Furcal ended up injuring Derrek Lee at Dodger Field on a freak accident and the season was basically lost.

Some of this was Dusty’s doing. He loved guys like Jose Macis, Neifi Perez and Roberto Novoa, despite obvious flaws. He left pitchers in games longer than he should have and it probably cost the Cubs a couple of good years out of Prior and Wood. Dusty was stuck in the past, and just didn’t quite figure out that sometimes the second baseman should hit 2nd in the batting order.

But the question I have is this: What if Dusty would have gotten the financial backing that Lou Piniella has gotten?

Think about it for a second. The Cubs could have landed Edgar Renteria following the 2004 season (As ESPN predicted) or Furcal following the 2005 season as most Cubs fans (and probably Cubs management) thought. They could have landed a solid starter to depend on rather than hope for a healthy Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. They could have gone out and gotten a better replacement for Gonzalez in 2004, Nomar in 2004 or 2005 and Lee in 2006.

The Cubs could have patched holes a lot quicker than they did. They should have patched the holes a lot quicker than they did. They money was there, a good amount of talent was there. Attendance was high, ticket prices were high, and fans came out in droves to see the Cubbies make a run at the playoffs.

Yet the Tribune did nothing. Can you imagine if they had backed Dusty like they have backed Lou Piniella? Dusty had a team with a 90 million dollar payroll, but it was obvious that it wasn’t 90 million dollars worth of talent. Contracts were sunk into Burnitz, Hollandsworth, Ordonez, and others. Dusty never got a big time free agent signed that was about to his prime. Instead, he was given a former Cub on the downside of a career (Maddux). Dusty was given a guy that no other teams wanted (Burnitz). Dusty was given a bench full of injuries and no depth.

Its something to think about. What if Dusty had been given the financial backing that Lou Piniella has gotten?

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In 2004, the Houston Astros fired Jimmy Williams and replaced him with Phil Garner. Garner who led the Astros to a great second half as the team won the Wild Card. The next year, the Astros won the Wild Card yet again but went on to lose the World Series in 5 games. Last year, the Astros battled back from a rough season to challenge the Cardinals for the division. They lost out in the final weekend. This year, Garner will try to work his magic without the services of Jeff Bagwell, Andy Pettitte, and possibly Roger Clemens. They did add Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings for another run at a successful season. The Astros have finished .500 or better in 14 of their last 15 season.

Starting Pitching:
The last few seasons, the Astros have relied on a big 3 headed monster of Clemens, Petittte, and Roy Oswalt. This year, Oswalt may be the only one left as the Astros look to go in another direction. Oswalt is one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball and is off to an amazing start to his career. The Astros awarded Oswalt with a 5 year 73 million dollar contract to stay with Houston through 2011. After back to back 20 win seasons, Oswalt was 15-8 with an ERA of 2.98 last year. His ERA was good enough to win the ERA crown. For his career, he has posted a record of 98-47 with an ERA of 3.05. Oswalt is close to a given in the NL as there is. He has pitched close to 700 innings the last 3 years with a combined 55-30 record. In that same time, Oswalt has struck out 556 batters while walking only 148 batters. He’ll be looking for another 20 win season. The Astros knew they needed to make a move to acquire a starting pitcher and they found one in Colorado. Jason Jennings comes over from the Rockies and is projected to be the number 2 starter in the Astros rotation. While pitching at Coors field, Jennings had his best year in 6 seasons in Colorado last year. The 28-year-old only went 9-13 but did compile a 3.78 ERA. The Astros hope the light bulb turned on and he will thrive coming over to another hitter’s park. His career ERA is very high at 4.74 even after the solid year. The team hopes this is all because of him pitching at Coors and just the maturation process to becoming a solid, complimentary pitcher. Right now, the 3rd starter is going to be Woody Williams. Williams signed a 2 year deal worth an estimated 12.5 million bucks. He’s been a solid pitcher on this latter side of his career but he does turn 40 this year and hasn’t pitched more than 200 innings in 4 years. If he can stay healthy, there’s no doubt that Williams can help the rotation. If he’s the 3 starter and not healthy, the Astros may be in big trouble. Wandy Rodriquez hopes to win a spot this year in Houston’s rotation. Rodriquez, 28-years-old, has spent two seasons with the Astros and has a career ERA of 5.58 in 264 career innings. The Astros like him and believe he can be a solid starter. He will have to have better control if batters continue to hit .290 off of him. Rodriquez might have to fight two guys for a spot in the rotation if things work out the way the Astros would prefer it. 23-year-old Matt Albers got a small taste of the majors last year. His shaky 15 major league innings doesn’t overshadow the great year Albers has in AA. He finished with a 10-2 record and 2.17 ERA. He wound up being the Texas League Pitcher of the Year. The other contender will be 24-year-old Fernando Nieve. He started 11 games last year and filled in nicely for Astros injured starters. In 40 total games and 96.1 total innings with Houston, Nieve had an ERA of 4.20. No one knows what Clemens will do or even if Houston is his first choice. Andy Pettite has left Houston for the Yankees which might weigh on Clemen’s decision. Without those 2 big names, and Brandon Backe out for the season, the Astros might not have enough firepower to survive in 2007.

Bullpen:
The Bullpen has a lot of power arms to get the Astros through the crucial innings. It has the potential of being a very solid pen but the success of it may come down to one player. Brad Lidge looked to be the closer of the future in major league baseball. In his first year as closer, Lidge saved 29 games with a 1.90 ERA while striking out 157 batters in 94.7 innings! The next year, in 2005, he saved 42 games and had a 2.29 ERA. In the NLCS in 2005, Lidge and the Astros were one out away from the World Series. Albert Pujols shocked the world when he smacked a home run which deflated Lidge which might have carried over to 2006. Although he saved 32 of 38 games, Lidge had a 5.28 ERA and failed to be a dominant pitcher for the Astros. He’ll get a shot at redemption this year and many expect him to regain his form. As for set up men, the Astros have a great duo in Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls. Wheeler pitched in 75 games last year and posted a 2.52 ERA. Wheeler has found a home in Houston and figures to be there for awhile. Qualls has been solid in his 3 years in the majors. He isn’t spectacular but he gets the job done. He did have some trouble last year with the homerun ball as he gave up 10 homers in less than 90 innings. Trevor Miller is back for his second year in Houston. The 34-year-old had a solid 3.02 ERA and lowered his walk total and added onto his strikeouts from his year n 2005 with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The bullpen will also probably add the loser of the rotation battle. It’ll be a good pen and expect Lidge to go back to blowing away everyone and in the clutch.

Outfielders:
The Astros desperately wanted to add a big bat to their lineup for 2007. Well, 6 years and 100 million bucks gets you 31-year-old Carlos Lee. Lee is a very solid, consistent slugger who will wreak havoc in the middle of the Astros order. Lee hit 37 homers and drove in 116 runs, both career highs, splitting time between Milwaukee and Texas. He’s a quality hitter who hit .300 last year with only 65 strikeouts in 624 at bats. Lee should be able to thrive in Houston ballparks and he surely will make pitchers sweat; especially left handed pitchers. One drawback is his defense which can be shaky at times. He’s not known as a hard worker but you can hardly argue with his power numbers. Lee should be able to come close to surpassing his career high power numbers and set off lots of choo-choo trains. In CF, it looks like Chris Burke will finally get a full time job. After being stuck behind Craig Biggio and Willy Taveras, Burke looks to break out and gets over 500 at bats. Burke is a hard nosed player which seems to outrank his actual talent. He hit .276 and had an on base percentage of .347 in 366 at bats. The Astros probably want him to do better than those numbers especially if he’s going to man CF. He does have ok speed but also strike outs a bunch. Luke Scott looked like the total package last year. While he did have 80 at bats in 2005, last year was his true chance in the majors. Scott does turn 29 in June, so, he will have to be consistent pretty fast to stick with the club. If he can put up numbers for a full season, he surely will be the everyday right fielder. In 214 at bats, Scott hit .336 with 10 homers and 37 RBI’s. The time is now for Scott and the Astros are hoping he’s for real. The production of the outfield will mostly depend on what Scott can do. Lee will be the star, Burke the weak link, and Scott the question mark.

Infield:
The Astros also have some problems in their infield. Morgan Ensberg will be the third baseman but everyone will be wondering which Ensberg they will get. He has the Bret Saberhagen syndrome of having a great year every other year. In 2003 and 2005, Ensberg hit 61 homers and drove in 161 runs in 911 at bats. In 2004 and 2006, Ensberg hit 33 homers and drove in 124 runs in 798 at bats. Last year, he hit only .235 although he had a great eye and drew 101 walks to boost his On Base Percentage near .400. He’s a pretty solid fielder with a very strong arm at third. If things go as they have been, the Astros will have solid third baseman. If not, the offense will suffer greatly. At SS, super defender Adam Everett will enter his 7th season with Houston. He committed all of 7 errors last year in 149 games. While his defense is spectacular, his offense leaves much to be desired. He only batted .239 with 6 homers and 59 RBI’s. Still, Everett is an important cog in the Astros scheme. He needs to keep playing stellar defense and hope he can add as much offense as he can. At Second Base, Craig Biggio will begin his 20th season, his entire career, with the Houston Astros. One of the original Killer B’s, Biggio goes into the season needing only 70 hits to reach 3,000 for his great career. He’s still a very productive player at age 41 but is still slowing down quite a bit. He hit over 20 hr’s for the 3rd straight year while driving in over 60 runs for the 4th straight year. He only hit .246 which was his lowest average since his rookie season way back in 1988. His 79 runs scored and 3 stolen bases were both his lowest posted numbers in both categories, in years he wasn’t injured, since 1994. He’s on his last leg but still may be able to provide the Astros with a spark and good power production out of the 2B spot. At First Base, the Astros have the very dangerous Lance Berkman. Berkman is one of the finest sluggers the National League has to offer. He literally makes the Astros offense go and should benefit greatly with Lee batting behind him this year. If the Astros top of the order can get on consistently, Berkman should be able to match the year he had last year. In 2006, he .315 with 45 homers and 136 RBI’s. He’s had 6 straight seasons of a .400 plus on base percentage. The guy is an absolute monster. In fact, his defense at First Base has also improved a bit. Berkman will surely continue to be a major force while hoping he can find some Killer B’s or C’s or whatever to help him and the offense. He’ll certainly have a Killer L beside him.

Catcher:
Brad Ausmus comes back for his 9th season with the Astros, although, not consecutively. Known as one of the better game callers in the Majors, Ausmus will put his best foot forward to still contribute offensively. Ausmus hit only 2 homers last year along with 39 RBI’s. He shows a good eye at the plate but the Astros really just expect him to take care of the pitching staff. Like Biggio, Ausmus’s  time is running out but the Astros hope to squeeze one more year of magic and production out of him.

Bench:
Jason Lane leads the bench for the Astros. He’s another one of those guys who seemed to have a magical run in 2005. He failed to repeat his success from 2005 last year. Lane went from 26 homers and a .267 average in 2005 to 15 homers and a .201 average in 2006. Lane might still prove to be valuable as he can give the Astros a right handed power hitter off the bench. Mark Loretta has been a very steady player the past few years in the starting role. He looks to fill in all over the infield and might just take over the Second Base job if Biggio moves back to CF. Mike Lamb is back after hitting .307 and 12 home runs in 381 at bats. He’ll supply the left handed power bat off the bench. Eric Bruntlett will round out a pretty good bench. The Bench actually looks like it has a few guys who can start, so, it should present a good situation for competition.

Outlook:
The additions of Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings were much needed acquisitions to enable the Astros to keep challenging in the NL Central. The Astros have been one of the best and most consistent organizations in baseball in recent years. Of course, the Astros will hope, again, that Roger Clemens plays for them come mid-season. They also look forward to seeing Lee in their middle of their lineup which hasn’t been too strong in the past few years. The Astros will need a lot of production from older veterans to come through. On paper, the Astros don’t look too strong. On paper, it never tells the whole story. You can expect to see the Astros competing for the NL Central crown come September.

I got to thinking today (unusual, I know) and I decided that my favorite moment of the 2006 season came on May 20th. That was the day of days for Cubs fans, as Michael Barrett drilled A.J. Pierzynski. I’m sure baseball was thrilled, but as a Cubs fan I nearly needed a change of shorts. Barrett swung a mighty right and knocked A.J. back into puberty. It was the best moment this rivalry has seen in quite a while (if you’re a Cubs fan) and will be remembered for a long time. It might even challenge Kyle Farnsworth v. Paul Wilson (2003)  for the title of greatest Cubs fight of all time. What do you all think? (And what do you think of the picture below?)

Since Pierce decided to publish the Sporting News Projections, I’ve decided to post up another projection source, one that has a much better track record, ZiPS. There are a few disclaimers I should note, first these are projections. Although ZiPS has a historical 69% success rate, they are not facts nor written in stone. Secondly, you’ll notice they throw minor leaguers in the equation too, to give you a feel of what they could do on the MLB level.

Below, you’ll find the spreadsheet, enjoy, hopefully we’ll be posting PECOTA numbers in the not-so-distant future.