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February 2010

Cubs System Rated as One of the Worst in MLB

April 10th, 2009

In what should be no surprise to anyone who follows the minor leagues and drafts, the Cubs’ farm system is rated one of the worst in MLB by Baseball America. In this year’s edition of Top Organizations, the Cubs put one of their worst rankings in years with a #27 out of a possible 30. Only the Tigers, the Padres and the Astros were rated lower than Chicago. In the past five years, the Cubs were middle of the pack the past three rating number 18 in 2008 and 2007 with a 15 spot in 2006. In the prior two seasons, we had a full system which was rated number 10 in 2005 and 7th in 2004. With the Cubs’ current win-now philosophy that has included graduation of a few top prospects along with the trade-aways for immediate relief this should not be a shocker. Inside we’ll see what happened to the system and if it’s actually rebuilding.

So how did this happen? How did we got from a top farm system five years ago to bottom of the barrel? It’s really a configuration of several intangibles. Many will point to the graduation of several players that are now contributing to the parent club: Geovany Soto, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, Micah Hoffpauir, and Sean Marshall. Of most of those players never made the Cubs top prospect list and are marginal contributors on the roster. Here is the list of the Cubs Top 10 Prospects the past five years:

2009 Top Prospects
1) Josh Vitters
2) Jeff Samardiza
3) Andrew Cashner
4) Dau-Eun Rhee
5) Wellington Castillo
6) Kevin Hart
7) Starlin Castro
8 ) Ryan Flaherty
9) Jay Jackson
10) Hak Ju Lee

2008 Top Prospects
1) Josh Vitters
2) Geovany Soto
3) Tyler Colvin
4) Jose Ceda
5) Sean Gallagher
6) Donnny Veal
7) Josh Donaldson
8 ) Jeff Samardiza
9) Tony Thomas
10) Kevin Hart

2007 Top Prospects
1) Felix Pie
2) Donny Veal
3) Jeff Samardzija
4) Tyler Colvin
5) Sean Gallagher
6) Eric Patterson
7) Scott Moore
8 ) Ryan Harvey
9) Chris Huseby
10) Mark Pawelek

2006 Top Prospects
1) Felix Pie
2) Mark Pawelek
3) Ronny Cedeno
4) Angel Guzman
5) Rich Hill
6) Sean Marshall
7) Ricky Nolasco
8 ) Ryan Harvey
9) Brian Dopirak
10) Eric Patterson

2005 Top Prospects
1) Brian Dopirak
2) Felix Pie
3) Ryan Harvey
4) Angel Guzman
5) Billy Petrick
6) Renyal Pinto
7) Sean Marshall
8 ) John Leicester
9) Grant Johnson
10) Jason Dubois

2004 Top Prospects
1) Angel Guzman
2) Justin Jones
3) Ryan Harvey
4) Andy Sisco
5) Felix Pie
6) Bobby Brownlie
7) Chadd Blasko
8 ) Brendan Harris
9) David Kelton
10) Jae kuk Ryu
Then there is the notion that we’ve traded off most of our top talented prospects for players that make us better now. Which is true, just look at some of our last dealings: Josh Donaldson, Matt Murton, Sean Gallagher, and Eric Patterson for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin; Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg; Felix Pie, and Ronny Cedeno which netted us Aaron Heilman; Ricky Nolasco and Renyal Pinto for Juan Pierre; Brendan Harris, Francis Beltran, and Justin Jones got us a return of Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton.

Then of course there is always the fizzle factor. Unfortunately for the Cubs we’ve had our share of elite touted prospects that ended up tanking whether due to injuries or not making the proper adjustments when advancing. Case in point with the recent departure of former top prospects Ryan Harvey, Mark Pawelek and Grant Johnson. Along with Rule V draftee Donny Veal, the enigma Rich Hill and countless others such as Tyler Colvin, Angel Guzman, Billy Petrick, and Brian Dopirak.

The worst part in trading off our prospects is that we’ve been unable to replish them in the system, and that’s even after hiring draft guru Tim Wilken. Wilken had an amazing first round draft streak with the Toronto Blue Jays, drafting a consecutive 12 1st rounders who made the MLB as well as finding exceptional talents later in the draft. In his first Cubs’ lead draft in 2006, he spent it on a controversial pick in Tyler Colvin, a consensus 3rd round pick, who could ruin his consecutive first round pick streak. In the fifth round, he drafted a top 10 overall pick in Jeff Samardzija who was thought to be unsignable. He then drafted high schoolers and though to be unsignables in Chris Huseby (11th round) and Drew Rundle (14th round) yet both have severally sputtered in the low levels. Elsewise the 2006 draft was very weak, and it didn’t help the club was missing any supplemental picks, a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks; thus the team gambled with their financial pocketbooks.

In the 2007 draft, Wilken and the Cubs’ selected 3B uber prospect Josh Vitters third overall, a personal Wilken favorite. Yet that pick was close to being RHP Jarrod Parker, a Hendry favorite, if the Royals had picked Vitters second overall instead of 3B/SS Matt Moustakas which was close to reality than some might believe. In our deepest draft with Wilken under the helm, we then took an offensive catcher that had questions surrounding his defense in Josh Donaldson with our supplemental pick. We earned the rights to Donaldson for losing Juan Pierre to the Dodgers. After that Wilken took a serious barrage of college players that were close to their peak in Tony Thomas, Darwin Barney, Casey Lambert, Brandon Guyer, Ty Wright, and Marques Smith.

In 2008, we once again took safe college picks with limited ceilings in Andrew Cashner, Ryan Flaherty, Aaron Schafer, Chris Carpenter, and Josh Harrison. Signing 4th rounder SS Matt Cerda and 19th rounder SS Logan Watkins were just a few of the high school signees the Cubs’ flexed their financial muscle at. Still they let 27th rounder high schooler Sonny Gray get away who will likely be a top ten pick in three years. As most draft analyst had him going in the first three rounds if it wasn’t for his college commitment to Vanderbilt.

But I don’t blame Wilken, as when he came to the Cubs’ fold GM Hendry told him “just get me major leaguers.” Hendry also made it be known to Wilken that the organization had a typical pitcher first draft policy and college players instead of like in Toronto or Tampa which both focused on positional players and high schoolers. Wilken has followed his given role to Hendry’s letter, the system has several college players that look to be bench players in the future yet besides Vitters there is no superstar in development.

Instead of focusing on the draft or in Latin America, the Cubs have decided to go an opposite path and hit up the lesser scouted Asia. Several of the club’s newly highly touted prospects are out of the Pacific Rim. The organization is not only continuing to set up strong ties in South Korea but is looking to delve into Japan as well. This new found organizational philosophy is much different than that of most ballclubs who continually throw huge amounts of cash at 16 year old (or supposedly 16 year olds) Latin prospects.

Only time will tell if the club’s new scouting tactics will help combat the lack of talent that is currently in the system. Although with drafting older players with lower ceilings, we’re looking at just filling the upper system and potentially the MLB bench yet still not gambling on top talents that take time to develop. Yes, the Cubs are making progress by scouting zones that are less inhabited by MLB talent evaluators but to this point none have panned out; even dating back to South Korean talents Choi and Ryu. I’d like to say we’re on the upswing in turning the door but as a system it appears we’re sputtering our wheels with our minor league scouting and development.

Posted by Bob Sacamento in Bob's View, Cubs News

This entry was posted on Friday, April 10th, 2009 at 5:19 am and is filed under Bob's View, Cubs News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the comments RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

4 Responses to “Cubs System Rated as One of the Worst in MLB”

StylesClash says:

The Shafer and Carpenter picks seem wise to me. Both were regarded as first round talents before injuries took place. If they recover properly we will have gotten a couple major steals. And if they don’t atleast we know Wilken took a chance on two pitchers with high upsides.

Also Tim Wilken’s 12 year stretch of first round selections reaching the Majors really shouldn’t be used as a compliment. The goal of a first round pick is to gain an all star caliber player, not someone capable of being on your 25 man roster. I’ll gladly give Wilken credit for Halliday. But Carpenter didn’t breakout until becoming a Cardinal, Vernon Wells is one of baseball’s most inconsistent hitters, and Alex Rios didn’t become a quality big league player until his third season (an amount of leeway he absolutely wouldn’t have been given as a Cub).

The Vitters selection has bothered me from the moment he was selected. Both Weiters and Porcello were more highly rated than Vitters during the 2007 draft. Weiters was dubbed the best Catcher to enter the draft since Mauer in 2001, and Porcello the best High School Pitcher to enter the draft since Josh Beckett in 1999. Those descriptions sound much better than Howie Kendrick with more power (the report I’ve heard for Vitters the most). If signability played a significant role in taking Vitters the Cubs should be ashamed of themselves. Letting a few million dollars cost you a franchise caliber player is embarrassing, especially for a big market team that paid Shark ten million.

Starlin Castro is one of the Cub minor leaguers I will follow the most. A teenage shortstop being skipped all the way to high Single-A must mean Hendry and Fleita have significant expectations. Maybe you can writeup a scouting report on Castro next?

April 10th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
Bob Sacamento says:

Interesting point on Vitters, Wieters was the most highly regarded catching prospect since Mauer and Porcello the best HS pitcher since Beckett. Both players were represented by Boras though and both were using leverage to push the biggest contracts possible. Wieters threatened to play indy ball if he didn’t get a MLB contract before settling with Baltimore on a 6M signing bonus in the last minute. Then Porcello, as a HSer with a college committment, had even more leverage thus forcing a MLB contract (4YR guarenteed 10.8M plus club option years in 2011 and 2012).

Like I had said in the article, the Cubs’ next selection if Vitters was off the board was HS P Jarrod Parker. Without a doubt signability and the threat of giving a MLB contract swayed the Cubs and many other clubs away from both Wieters (5th overall) and Porcello (27th overall). Instead the Cubs’ signed Vitters 3rd overall for 3.2M which wasn’t too much over slot. And did not draw the ire of the MLB office. The Pirates drafted what the MLB wanted in an established MLB arm in Dan Moskos in the fourth overall pick to sign at or near bonus value. Once again such a pick sent the Pirates back instead of sending them forward. Finally, under new management and scouting, the Pirates spent the money on top prospect 3B Pedro Alveras and added depth to their weak system.

As for signing the Shark in 2007 for an MLB contract (5YR guarenteed 12M with club option in 2012, 2013 can reach 16.5M), the club justifies it by signing Colvin at or below slot money in the first round in addition to not having a supplemental, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round draft pick. They also signed HSer P Chris Huseby, to 1.1M as an 11th round draft pick, a draft record. The MLB was not happy with the Cubs’ draft selection at all for giving out excessive figures to MLB recommended slot numbers (an MLB contract in the 5th round and a record shattering 11th round figure). The club even was fined a .5M in July 2008 for not reporting that they signed an agreement ahead of time, a practice that happens often (3rd Rd Matt Cerda for .5M where slot was .23. The fine was MLB’s way of telling the Cubs’ to get into the drafting stepline or else.

Yes, it’s an embarrassment that as a club we constantly don’t spend one of the most in the draft, in fact this past draft, the Cubs spent one of the least amounts of all MLB teams. For some reason we refuse to join the ranks of the Tigers, Yanks, and BoSox at thumbing our nose at draft bonus setmarks. Whether it was Selig and Co. slapping our hands, Cub management being in cohoots with MLB setting up a new draft system, or the unknown fact of ownership, the Cubs toed the line for draft recommendations the two past drafts.

Vitters being a better more powerful Kendrick isn’t a good analogy, not with Wieters getting comped to a Piazza with defense or Tex that can catch, not with Porcello being compared to the next Josh Beckett. Those are both high comps, the best comp for Vitters is a Pat Burrell that can play 3B. Yes a few million (2.75M) did separate us from Vitters and Wieters, yet with money in question and what was available, Hendry wanted the most viable (cheapest) player to reach the MLB the quickest. Even if the Royals took Vitters at #2 instead of Moustaskas, the Cubs were going to take Arizona HSer P Jarrod Parker due to his abilities and easy signing instead of Porcello who was considered a top 5 pick based on talent alone.

Castro is one of the prospects to follow the most, but don’t judge him solely on his stats as he will be one of the youngest players in High A. The Cubs put him at a high level for his age and experience, just trying to get his feet wet offensively while his defense is spectacular in plays that he made showing deep range and a strong arm at shortstop. I’ll profile Castro shortly, but have been more focused on immediate impact prospects of late; Mitch Atkins our 6/7th starter might see some MLB action depending on our health and he’s my long term prospect to profile next. Like most scouts I love Castro’s potential power abilities with his plus glove at SS, which he looks to stick at. Rough estimates have him at a Ronny Cedeno impact comp player.

April 11th, 2009 at 3:59 am
StylesClash says:

A Pat Burrell comparison for Josh Vitters doesn’t make much sense to me. Burrell isn’t that great of a contact hitter. His biggest strength is taking a huge amount of walks, to the point where his OBP is over 100 points higher than his BA. Thats not Vitters’ game, atleast right now. Most reports love Vitters’ hand/eye coordination, and project him to possibly win batting titles someday.

So lets see here. Amazing contact hitter who rarely walks or strikes out, and has the power potential around 25 to 30 Homers. Sounds like Nomar in his prime to me.

April 11th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Bob Sacamento says:

Well you obviously didn’t read much of Pat Burrell ten years ago. Pat was projected to challenge for batting titles and homerun crowns just as Vitters is now. Scouts see Vitters adding substancially to his walk total as he matures, eventually turning into a 80-100 walk hitter; helping balance off his strikeout total. Coming up through the Philly system Pat was figured to give them at least a .300 average along with 30+ hrs and 100rbi+ in the middle of the lineup for years to come, just as Vitters is expected to as well.

April 11th, 2009 at 10:50 pm

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Cubs System Rated as One of the Worst in MLB

4 Responses to “Cubs System Rated as One of the Worst in MLB”

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