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Bob’s Top Ten Prospects

November 15th, 2009

The minor league season has come and gone and it’s time to look at the top prospects in the system and how they progressed through the season.  Some of the prospects have been considered bonafide since being drafted while others have quietly been preforming through the system and earning their stripes.  Former 2003 fourth rounder, Jake Fox from the University of Michigan, burst onto the scene in the first half putting up dominating numbers in AAA Iowa before becoming one of Piniella’s favorite bats in the second half of the season.  After spending only 43 games in Iowa, he was still the season leader for HR (17), RBI (53), Total Bases (138), along with posting a .409/.495/.841/1.336 in 164 at bats for the Iowa Cubs.  If not for his callup, Fox would have graced this list although likely at the bottom.  For the first time in  two years we have a new overall prospect surpassing Josh Vitters.  Click on to further read my Top Ten…

1) Starlin Castro SS 6-2 160lbs 3/24/90

Without a doubt, the 19 year old Castro has become the Cubs’ top prospect.  Last year, he was showcasing off as the shortstop for the Arizona Cubs in Rookie ball.  Despite his age, the Cubs aggressively promoted him to start the season off at High A Daytona completely skipping Low A Peoria.  The 19 year old has not disappointed.  Sure he got off to a slow start, hitting just .200 in April but he stepped up his game and started to get more comfortable at the dish.  For Daytona, in 358 at bats he had a line of .302/.340/.391/.731 with 22 stolen bases in 33 attempts all while playing shortstop and batting second.  Starlin also started and was the MVP for the Florida State League All-Star Game.  Castro distinguished himself enough that he was selected to the 2009 Future’s All-Star Game and in early August he was promoted to AA Tennessee.  There he continued his hot streak with his bat, hitting .288/.347/.396/.744 in 111 at bats and in the playoffs he went 10 for 33 with 3 RBI, 1 BB, 5 KK batting leadoff and sixth in the order.  Castro’s impressive season led the Cubs to selecting him to the Arizona Fall League against other top prospect competition. Starlin is the youngest player in the AFL and currently is fourth in batting average and third in hits, currently he is hitting 33 for 85 with a line of .388/.411/.494/.905 in 22 games with 6 for 9 stolen bases and was selected to the AFL’s Rising Stars Game where he started at short, hit second and went 2 for 3.

Starlin has quick wrists, the ability to go to opposite field while swinging a line drive bat.  Not only is Castro’s bat very advanced for his age but so is his glove, many analysts love his range and arm strength and think he’ll be able to stay at shortstop throughout his career even as he bulks up.  At 6′1 and 160lbs, he is quiet lithe but should put on more muscle in the coming years which will add to his lacking power.  Other than a lack of homerun power, Starlin still has facets of his game that he needs to work, such as his baserunning technique and everyday plays at shortstop.  Still Castro is going to be a special player, Tim Wilken in the past as compared him to Tony Fernandez while others have called him a version of Derek Jeter.  Nevertheless, Castro could be wearing a Chicago jersey by the end of 2010 and looks to be a cornerstone for the Cubs’ future.  For the time being Starlin should star on a Cub prospect laden AA Tennessee to start 2010.

2) Brett Jackson CF  6-2 210lbs  8/2/88

Jackson was the 31st overall pick in this years draft and signed for slot money at 1.4M.  He is a tremendous athlete and a physical specimen, showing the ability to be a five tool player if he hits his high ceiling.  Without a doubt, Jackson is the Cubs’ top outfield prospect with the ability to make consistent contact, show good speed, a good eye, good power potential, decent range in CF, and a good arm.  One of his biggest knocks coming out of the draft was his high strikeout rate, which many attributed to working deep counts and not possessing plus contact yet turned out to be Brett trying to do too much and improve his draft stock.  After his signing, he first reported to the Rookie League in Arizona but was promoted to Boise after only three games.  For the Short A Hawks, Brett batted third and played center where he posted a line of .330/.433/.398/.841 in 24 games.  Afterwards he was promoted to Low A Peoria where his star shined even brighter.  In 26 games, Brett hit with authority posting a line of .295/.383/.545/.927 in 111 at bats with 7 homeruns.

Jackson has shown he’s a better draft pick than what he was and the Cubs got a bargain due to their scouting.  Brett has the chance to start in AA Tennessee next year and climb the ladder quickly as the Cubs are looking for a centerfielder on the MLB level as soon as possible.  Brett still has to show that he can hit offspeed pitches instead of just laying off of them.  He has to continue to show good contact along with a good eye at the plate and power the further he develops.  If he does show that 2009 was not a fluke, he could spend some of the late season of 2010 in Wrigley Field.

3) Josh Vitters  3B 6-3 200lbs 8/27/89

The cautious Cubs’ started Josh off in Low A Peoria for the 2009 year season.  Vitters did not disappoint as in 70 games, he went 85 for 269, with 12 doubles, 15 homeruns, 46 rbi, and 42 runs scored.  His line read .316/.351/.535/.886 while going 4/4 in stolen bases and was selected to the Midseason and Postseason Midwest League.  Josh was promoted to High A Daytona and he floundered offensively with the change.  In 50 games, he went 45 for 189, with 7 2B, 2 3B. 3 HR, 22 rbi, 21 runs with a line of .238/.260/.344/.604. With the Cubs wanting Vitters to put in more time to get use to the big league schedule, he has played in the Arizona Fall League and in 15 games, he has gone 23 for 64 with a line of .359/.388/.484/.872 while also being selected to the AFL Rising Stars Game with Starlin Castro.

Josh’s defense is gradually improving due to constant work with improved footwork and stronger throws.  Yet there are still some scouts who think he’s destined for firstbase or leftfield defensively.  Vitter’s defensive isn’t only in question but his ablity to get on base frequently the higher he climbs.  He has a free swinging way and makes contact often yet his ability to coax a walk is poor.  Josh will most likely start the 2010 season in Daytona and could see time in AA Tennessee before the year is out.

4) Huk-Ju Lee SS 6-2 170lbs 11/4/90

Lee has been the best Cubs’ signing out of their new hot bed in South Korea.  Huk-Ju signed out of high school in 2009 for .525M. Lee was basically unknown of outside of a few scouting circles; all that was known of him was that he was an Asian who played SS, and had amazing speed.  This season after having Tommy John surgery on his elbow last year, he played the full season at short A season Boise where most of the prospects are recent draftee selections.  While there he showed why the Cubs should consider him among the top middle infielders in the system.  Lee batted leadoff for the majority of the season posting a line of .330/.399/.420/.819 in 68 games and 264 at bats while going 25 for 33 in stolen bases.  Not only did Lee show off strong quick wrists, his ability to make great contact, and a good eye at the plate but he showed off great speed on the basepaths and in the field.   Huk-Ju’s biggest knock against him is ability to cleanly field balls at shortstop.  Lee had 27 errors this season at Boise but the Cubs’ internal development feels that with more experience his skills should improve.  Lee’s speed let’s him get to balls that most shortstops never would while his strong arm allows him to gun down runners that others wouldn’t that combination along with inexperience have lead to his fielding errors.  Huk-Ju is likely to start in Low A Peoria  next season but could climb to High A Daytona by season’s end.

5) Andrew Cashner  RHSP 6-6 210lbs 9/11/86

With the 19th pick in the 2008 draft the Cubs took Texas Christian University closer, Andrew Cashner who was viewed as a quick draft to big leagues reliever.  Yet the Cubs had other ideas, and turned him back to a starting pitcher in which he struggled with early in his college career.  Since then the organization has slowly brought him along as a starter beginning the 2009 year at High A Daytona.  The club was cautious with him early on as he suffered an oblique strain thus his workload and pitch count were limited.  In 12 starts, his fastball-slider combination was nearly unhittable while he gradually worked on his changeup.  In 42 IP, he gave up 31 H, 1 HR, 15 BB, 34 K with a line of 1.50 ERA/1.10 WHIP/.201 BAA.  Cashner had a good strikeout ratio and induced his fair share of grounder with his sinking fastball.  The Cubs rewarded Andrew late in the first half by promoting him to AA Tennessee.   Where in 12 starts and his arm stretched out he went deeper into ballgames, in 58 1/3 IP, giving up 45 H, 0 HR, 21 BB, 47 K with a line of 3.39 ERA/1.23 WHIP/.210 BAA.  His strikeout rate and hit rate were still strong along with good increase in his innings per start but he had control issues at times with his secondary pitches.  Still Andrew had a great season and the Cubs decided to send him to the Arizona Fall League to make up some of the innings he missed earlier in the season.  In 5 starts, he’s gone 16 2/3 IP giving up 18 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 16 K with a line of 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP/.277 BAA.  His control has been impressive although he’s given up more hits than one would like to see.  Cashner is likely to start the 2010 season back with AA Tennessee and could see a late season callup to the big leagues.

6 ) Jay Jackson RHSP 6-3 180lbs 9/23/88

Jay has been a surprise pick out of Furman college in the 2008 9th round.  He started the year off in the AA Tennessee rotation after playing at three levels in 2008.  While in AA, he was the team’s best pitcher in 16 starts, 1 complete game, he went 82 2/3 IP giving up 73 H, 7 HR, 39 BB, 77 K with a line of 3.70 ERA/1.35 WHIP/.236 BAA.  Jay started off cold in April with control issues but rebounded for a very strong May and June before having control issues again in July  (and disagreements with management) and was demoted to High A Daytona.  While back down in Daytona, he was dominating in 38 1/3 IP, he gave up 31 hits, 3 homeruns, 4 walks, and struckout 46 with a line of 1.64 ERA/0.91 WHIP/.218 BAA.  Afterwards, he was called up to Iowa to make a start where he went 6 IP, giving up 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K.  Jay still has to further develop another pitch to go along with his fastball and slider along with harness his command.  Jay is likely to start the 2010 season in AA Tennessee again and could see time in Iowa as well.

7) Chris Carpenter  RHSP 6-4 215lbs 12/26/85

Carpenter was the Cubs’ third rounder pick last year out of Kent State and ascended the organizational ladder quickly this season.  Chris started the year off in Low A Peoria where in 15 starts, he was tough to hit, in 73 2/3 IP, he gave up 55 hits, 33 walks and 60 strikeouts posting a 2.43 ERA/1.19 WHIP/.210 BAA and was selected to the midseason All Star team.  After that imposing start, Chris was promoted to High A Daytona, where in 5 starts, he went 25 IP, giving up just 15 hits, 8 walks, and 33 strikeouts with a line of 1.44 ERA/0.92 WHIP/.163 BAA.  With such impressive numbers and his pitchability Carpenter replaced Jay Jackson in the AA rotation.  But Chris didn’t have as smooth sailing in AA as he had in the A ball leagues.  In 7 starts, he went 32 IP, giving up 30 hits, 0 HR, 11 BB, 25 K for a line of 4.78 ERA/1.28 WHIP/.246 BAA.  Possessing a sinker with late life and good control of his secondary pitches, Carpenter is able to induce groundballs at a high rate along with the ability to strikeout hitters when needed.  After his run at AA last season, Carpenter should open the 2010 season in a very talented AA rotation.

8) Chris Huseby RHSP 6-7 220lbs 1/11/88

This was the first full season for Huseby, who was the Cubs’ 2006 11th rounder that the club inked in 2006 for a draft record at the round level of 1.1M so he’d forgo his college commitment to Florida.  Still the past few seasons for Chris have been marred by injury after injury along with the organization taking it easy on his recovery.  Now Huseby is closing games for Low A Peoria and he’s doing it with authority.  In 40 games, he went 54 IP giving up 43 H, 10 BB, 73 K with 18 saves and a line of 1.83 ERA/0.98 WHIP/.213 BAA.  Chris showed he can stay healthy for a season while showing a high octane fastball with good life along with a deadly slider.  The best part of Huseby’s season was his command, he was able to throw what he wanted where he wanted all season.  Based on his results in 2009, Huseby should start 2010 in High A Daytona but that depends on whether the club wants to stretch him back out as a starting pitcher. If that is the case then he could start the 2010 season back in Low A Peoria this time in the rotation.

9) Kyler Burke, RF 6-3 204lbs 4/20/88

The 2010 season was a breakout season for Burke, and he really showed what the Padres saw in him to select him 35th overall in the 2006 draft.  If you don’t recall Burke was the main prospect included in the trade that sent Michael Barrett to San Diego in 2007 and also netted us Rob Bowen.  Burke quietly toiled the past two seasons reaching Peoria last yet never really showed his full potential.  2009 was a different story as the 21 year old lefty showed off his contact skills, plate discipline, power potential batting cleanup along with his strong defensive abilities in right field.  In 132 games, Kyler was 141 for 465, with 43 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 93 R, 89 RBI with a line of .303/.405/.505/.910.  The Cubs will take their time wih Burke as they have in the past but he will start the 2010 season in right field for High A Daytona.

10) Chris Archer  RHSP 6-3 180lbs 9/23/88

Archer was the last ingredient thrown into the Mark DeRosa, that also netted the Cubs’ LHRP John Gaub (AAA) and RHRP Jeff Stevens.  There are questions whether or not the righty Archer has the ability to stay in the rotation as he climbs the upper levels.  In the past he’s show good potential but has dealt with command issues thus the 20 year old’s repeat at Low A Peoria.  In 26 starts, Archer was very impressive showing off his plus breaking ball and strong fastball, he went 109 IP giving up 78 hits, 0 hrs, 66 walks, 119 strikeouts with a line of 2.81 ERA/1.32 WHIP/.202 BA.  Archer should start the 2010 season in the High A Daytona rotation but in order for him to stay as a starter he has to learn how to harness his control or else he’ll only end up as a midreliever.
Honerable Mention:  LHP Austin Kirk, LHP Brooks Raley, SS/2B DJ LaMahieu,  SS/2B Logan Watkin, LHP Jeffry Antigua, RHP Roberto Hernandez, OF Tyler Colvi, C Wellington Castillo, RHP Blake Parker, SS/2B Ryan Flaherty

Posted by Bob Sacamento in Scouting Reports, Bob's View, Cubs News

4 Responses to “Bob’s Top Ten Prospects”

  1. ackidom4 says:

    This is the first year in a long time that I am actually excited about our system. Scouts have been impressed with Castro’s performance in the AZL. I just hope this kid can actually live up to all the hype instead of becoming the next Corey Patterson or Felix Pie. I still have my doubts about BJax but next year should give us a good indication of his future.

    Bob, it seems like a lot of people have soured on Vitters. I realize his K/BB ratio is concerning but he is still only 20 years old and has time to correct his flaws. The tools are clearly there but he clearly needs to work on his pitch selection in the coming years. The AA rotation is going to be stacked which is good because they are all just a phone call away from the bigs in the event that one of our starters gets hurt.

    Of the recently drafted/free agent signings, who do you think has a chance to breakout this year. The three I am mainly looking at are, Dong-Yub Kim, Trey McNutt, Austin Kirk. Other then that, nice list and way to get it out before BA’s.

  2. Bob Sacamento says:

    Our system ranks in the middle of MLB which is a far improvement over the past few years and we have the best (depth and highend talent) of any NL Central club. Castro’s ability to make contact is far superior to either Patterson or Pie, and much of Starlin isn’t hype he looks like the real thing and doesn’t have many holes in his game. As for Jackson, he could be the top prospect in the system next year or drop to the lower half of the top 10. Brett’s 2010 season has the potential to a be a breakout season.

    Scouts have soured on Vitters due to his inability to draw walks and instead use his great hitability to make contact. Some are really concerned of him being overexploited by pitchers in the advanced levels getting him to swing at pitches out of the zone. Josh still has all the tools and potential to be a superstar in the Cubs lineup for years to come, like you said he just has to work on his pitch selection. As for the AA rotation, it should be very strong yet as should the whole AA club.

  3. cubfanbrad says:

    Bob, good article. What do you think of some of the middle releivers that we might see pitch for the Cubs in 2010? None are top prospects, but I forsee Hendry saving FA money on releivers and rummaging through our AAA roster for some. I am thinking of:

    Caridad
    Stevens
    Parker
    Gaub
    Berg
    Russell

    ….what do you think of these guys? Are any of them the next Mike Weurtz, a kind of non-prospect who turned into an OK ML bullpen arm?

  4. Bob Sacamento says:

    Thanks Brad, sorry it took long to get back to you but I’ve been very busy in my Chiropractic Office and it’s only getting more volume.

    Of the middle relievers listed, I think Gaub has the highest upside as he is a hard throwing lefty who’s tough on both lefties and righties (but just devastating against southpaws). Several scouts said that Gaub was the best lefty reliever not in the big leagues last year. Still the Cubs have veteran lefty John Grabow inked for the next two years along with long armed lefties Tommy Gorzelanny and Sean Marshall. Yet at least one if not both should/could start the season in the rotation with Lilly out for April and parts of May at least.

    Caridad had a good showing last year displaying that he can be a long man if needed and the abilities to be a setup man. Jeff Stevens has a good fastball/slider mix along with a strong K rate. Justin Berg has a good sinker and can go some innings per outing while inducing grounders. But the converted catcher turned pitcher Blake Parker has made a quick around and looks like a bonafide late inning man with his fastball/slider. James Russell has arguably the best changeup in the system while spotting his fastball well and showcasing a good slider/curve. Both Parker and Russell look like righties that are ready for the show and finally getting their shot sometime this season.

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