Billy Petrick
6′6
240lbs
R/R
Morris, IL (Morris High School)

In this installment of Cubshub’s Scouting Reports, we’ll look at one of the recent kids to get a cup of coffee, Billy Petrick (pronounced Pet-Rick). Petrick is a former top pitching prospect who encountered shoulder problems halfway through his 2005 season. He’s spent the last two years rehabbing his arm, trying to recover his strength and pitching prowess. It appears Hendry/Fleita/Lou think he’s regained his arm strength, that’s why he’s been added to the 40 man roster. For more in-depth analysis on Petrick read on…

The Cubs drafted Petrick out of Morris High School (IL) in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft. Petrick didn’t hold out too long signing for close to a half million ($459K). He reported to Rookie ball in Arizona and in his six starts tore it up going 1-2 in 31 2/3 IP, 21 H, 6 ER, 6 BB, 35 K, with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP.

Petrick’s numbers were great but the club was cautious with his arm having him build arm strength at the Mesa complex in early 2003 and later joining Boise in late June. His 2-5 record and high ERA, didn’t indicate his pitching as many of his runs allowed wouldn’t have been with a better defense. In 14 starts, Petrick went 64 1/3 IP, giving up 60 H, 34 ER, 4 HR, 27 BB, 64 K with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

Still the Cubs’ brass was impressed with how he made hitters’ swing and miss. When hitters did make contact, it was usually on the ground. Yet he needed some serious work with locating his secondary pitches. Even with his spotty control and developing secondary, the Cubs promoted Petrick to the Lansing Lugnuts (Low-A). The Lugnuts rotation was filled with talent (Carlos Marmol, Bear Bay, Justin Jones, Sean Marshall, and Randy Wells). Quickly Billy rewarded the Cubs for their decision by compiling a 13-7 mark in 24 starts (plus 2 pen appearances). In those 26 total games, he went 146 2/3 IP, giving up 149 H, 57 ER, 3 HR, 43 BB, 113 K with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

Petrick’s 2004 season thrusted him into the spotlight. Scouts were raving about his poise, stuff, and arm strength as well as his maturity. What made Petrick a success was that his secondary stuff really started to come around and his sinker had everyone hitting the ball on the ground. The Cubs’ scouting circuit as well as most independent circuits were smitten, and Petrick earned a promotion to Daytona (High A).

Unfortunately for Petrick, his quick ladder ascent was brought to a halt just nine starts into the 2005 season. Petrick had a couple of rough starts and when he told the trainer he had discomfort when moving his shoulder around, it sent up red flags. It turned out his labrum was torn, needing season ending surgery.

Billy spent the rest of 2005 and early 2006 just resting his repaired arm as the organization didn’t want to push him. In 2006, Petrick started the season very slowly by opening up in Boise and later moving up to Daytona. The organization treated him as if he was a highly regarded selection in the 2006 Draft. The assignment and promotion indicated of a player the club was still very high on. His total 2006 numbers were a 6-2 record in 10 starts, going 52 2/3 IP, giving up 61 H, 20 ER, 3 HR, 14 BB, 37 K with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

This year, it was Fleita’s idea to start Petrick off as a reliever in Daytona (High-A) to help build up his arm strength. So far Petrick has been no disappointment relieving games this year at Daytona (High-A), Tennessee (AA), and now in the big leagues. Petrick has always had the stuff to thrive as a reliever but he still has the potential and developmental skills to be a midline or backend starting pitcher.

Pitching: Unlike most big frame pitchers, Petrick is not known as a power pitcher. Instead he relies on a great sinker which usually registers around 89-91 mph while topping at 93 this year in the minors. Before his surgery he was regularly hitting 93 and topping at 95 mph, with time he could reach that level again. To compliment, he features a nice biting slider in the upper 70’s. Additionally, Billy features a developed yet not refined changeup and curveball. On the mound, he is very poised and doesn’t get rattled easily.

Dubability: With his past shoulder injures, Petrick’s ability to throw more than a few innings an outing is highly questionable. Since his surgery in 2005, the shoulder strength to throw at a constant velocity over a ballgame is just not there. Last year, Billy could got two and three innings at his former pace. Yet beyond that was a crapshoot, often he’d lose his velocity hitting in the mid 80s and that makes for little room for control error as a starting pitcher.

Biggest Strength: Inducing Groundballs

Since the Cubs drafted Petrick, his ability to induce groundballs has been spectacular. This year is no different in that Petrick is close to 2:1 groundball:flyball ratio. Keeping the ball on the ground keeps the ball in park, rarely does Billy give up the longball. In fact over his minor league career, he’s given up only 14 homers in 385 2/3 IP career minor league innings. When he does give up the long ball it’s usually on a hanging slider, not the sinker. As long as the sinker keeps working, the groundballs should keep rolling.

Biggest Weakness: Health

There is no question, the health of Petrick’s arm will determine if he’s a successful MLBer. Billy has all the components to at least be a dominate setup man if not a midline starter in the majors. Whether or not he can avoid labrum issues in the future though is a big question. The rotator cuff muscles and the long head of the biceps insert upon it. One could have perfect mechanics yet natural wear and tear is going to occur, in some quicker than others. With problems already, there is a higher chance of reinjuring the site.

Key to Success: Limit Walks

So far this year Petrick has limited his walks to a career low, 2.28 BB/9. There is likelihood that’s due to pitching in the pen or it could just be maturity. Billy isn’t the type of pitcher who’s going to strikeout hitters at a high clip nor make them miss with their bats. Instead he lets them get themselves out and makes his infield work, so he can’t afford to be putting hitters on with a free pass.

MLB Comparision: Derek Lowe

The two have many similiarities. Big righties with a dominate sinker, good secondary pitches, and versatility. As a minor leaguer, Lowe was a starter but didn’t “wow” scouts with his mild peripherals. Many forget that Lowe spent the majority of his first five years in the MLB as a relief pitcher, even spending time as Boston’s closer. But the arm strength was always there and Boston put him in the rotation. Derek doesn’t have overpowering stuff put he gives quality innings, keeps the ball in the yard, and the team in the ballgame. If Petrick had a career anywhere close to Lowe’s, I’d be very happy.

Bob’s Take: It’s not discussed much but Petrick was exposed to the Rule V draft this past offseason. Some analysts thought it was a big gamble due to his former prospect status but despite some interest no one took a flyer on Billy. Much of it had to due to with the Cubs playing up his injury and holding him out of much of visible Spring Training. With his arm healthy, Petrick looks like he’s going to be a contender for a MLB roster spot for sometime to come. His role though is a toss-up, do you try and stretch him out again making him a starter and risking injury? Or do you keep him as a reliever, letting him throw limited innings yet preserving his arm? I don’t have the answers but if it was my call, I’d be willing to gamble his arm and make him a starter. Sinkerballs are a very valuable commodity in baseball especially at Wrigley.