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A look back at the 2004 Draft

December 7th, 2007

When the draft goes down in June, teams, players and fans are filled with for the future. That someday those players will grow up and help contribute to the parent club’s success and turn into superstars. Three full baseball years is about the earliest one can start judging the return and how a draft shaped out. Now is that time to look back at the 2004 where Hendry had just completed his first full season as a major league General Manager. Yet he still did not relinquished his death grip hold on our drafting process and worked with John Stockstill in the draft process, John has since left the organization and is an assistant GM in Baltimore. The Cubs had lost their first rounder to the Twins for signing reliever LaTroy Hawkins, with that pick Minnesota took college righty Matt Fox and got a supplemental pick at #39 and took a high school pitcher in Jay Rainville, neither have made it past High A ball yet but Rainville looks like a future stud. Here’s a look at what Scouting Director Stockstill and Hendry drafted that year:

2 Grant Johnson, rhp
3 Mark Reed, c
4 Chris Shaver, lhp
5 Adrian Ortiz, of
6 Tim Layden, lhp
7 Mitch Atkins, rhp
8 Eric Patterson, 2b
9 Ryan Norwood, 1b
10 Sam Fuld, of
11 Jon Hunton, rhp
12 Sean Gallagher, rhp
13 Ryan Moorer, rhp
14 Eli Iorg, of
15 Alfred Joseph, of
16 J.R. Mathes, lhp
17 Jerry Blevins, lhp
18 Jake Marsello, rhp
19 Micah Owings, rhp
20 Trey Taylor, rhp
21 Will Fenton, rhp
22 Walter Diaz, ss
23 Chris Gaskin, 1b
24 Jeff Culpepper, of
25 Casey Erickson, rhp
26 Paul Cinder, rhp
27 Jason Kosow, rhp
28 Jonathan Douillard, c
29 Mike Svetlic, 2b
30 Russ Canzler, 1b
31 Jesse Estrada, rhp
32 Cody Gilbert, 3b
33 Randy Brown, of
34 Dustin Bamberg, c
35 Drew O’Connell, rhp
36 Colby Wark, rhp
37 Michael Hyle, rhp
38 Kurt Eichorn, rhp
39 Trent Luyster, lhp
40 Marcus Crockett, of
41 Kenn Kasparek, rhp
42 Ryan Morgan, 3b
43 Adam Daniels, lhp
44 Zane Green, of
45 Christopher Dunkin, c
46 Greg Fudacz, rhp
47 Andrew Liebel, rhp
48 Olin Wick, c
49 Brandon Harmon, rhp
50 Gerald Miller, of
As one can see that draft has not been very fruitful. We’ve only had three players reach the MLB so far, and all have been on limited roles with all projected as borderline starting players. Hendry’s fingerprints are all over this draft especially in the team’s first selection of Notre Dame righty Grant Johnson. The 6′6 Johnson was considered a top talent back in his high school days but made it known to scouts that he was going to college. In his freshman year as a Fighting Irish, he helped guide them to the College World Series going 9-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 18G and 101 IP. In that span he gave up 94 hits, 39 ER, 0 HR, 44 BB, and 86 K. Yet shortly after his run, Grant was having shoulder discomfort that eventually led to an extensive shoulder surgery done by the Cubs’ physician and cost him his entire 2003 season. In 2004, his velocity was down much of the year but he flashed some brilliant moments going 6-0 with a 1.87 ERA. In 14 G, he only went 57 IP, while giving up 39 hits, 12 ER, 2 HR, 26 BB, 51 K. As the season progressed, he definitely got stronger. His coach Paul Manieri, who’s good friends’ with Jim, gave rave reviews on Grant’s makeup and abilities. When Hendry and Company saw him still available in the second round they felt like they had to take him.

Grant had a solid rookie year in 2005 for Peoria despite his 3-8 record. The next season, he started off in Daytona (High A) in the rotation but fizzled and endured some injuries. It wasn’t until he was put into the bullpen that Johnson started to put things together. To start the 2007 season, the Cubs had Grant back in Daytona and still in the pen. Once there, Grant’s star started to shine with his sinker/slider combo. Quickly he earned the callup to Tennessee (AA) where he continued his run in the pen. The Cubs’ made Johnson available this year in the Rule V draft, hoping that teams pass on him.

The third round pick, catcher Mark Reed, has completely fizzled. The high school super athlete has not translated any of his offensive tools yet and behind the plate he’s still extremely wet and doesn’t look to stick there. The big lefty (6′7) Chris Shaver from William and Mary was on the fast track through the Cubs’ system. In 2006 for AA, he went 7-10 in 26GS going 150 1/3 IP giving up 146 H, 50 ER, 7 HR, 56 BB, and 120 K. Shaver was on his way to start for Iowa in 2007, that is until he needed Tommy John surgery which cost him nearly his entire 2007 season. Shaver is likely to start the year in either Daytona or Tennessee’s starting rotation. Like Johnson, he too was made available for the Rule V draft.

Of the draftees’, eighth rounder Eric Patterson from Georgia Tech was the earliest pick to reach the MLB. Eric is unlike his brother, but still EP was a steal this late in the draft. Most projections had him going around the supplemental or 3rd round, and he had another year of eligibility. Still he signed for above slot money even if it was late in the signing process. Patterson tore up the minors offensively and climbed quickly. Patterson is definitely a MLBer whether it’s as a starter or utility player is yet to be determined.

The hottest flavor of the month right now and the most recent callup of the 2004 draft is CF Sam Fuld. Sam was taken in the 10th round of the 2004 draft, after the Cubs took him in the 23rd round of 2003. The Cubs’ had Sam playing in the Arizona Fall League, where he’s arguably the MVP of the league leading hits (43), doubles (11), total bases (67), on-base percentage (.492), slugging percentage (.626), and OPS (1.118) and finishing second in average at .402. Fuld has unbelievable plate discipline, good contact abilities and plays the game with heart and determination the way it should be played. Last year, when I was asked on air about what Cubs’ minor leaguer that fans don’t know about but should, I replied simply “Sam Fuld”. Sam’s biggest problems the past few seasons have been due to unforeseen injuries due to his aggressive style of play. Last year, he lucked out and didn’t get injured yet pushed through the system and came up big down the stretch for the parent club in the field and on the bases. Sam is expected to be nothing more than a forth or fifth outfielder in the majors but with his grit, determination, and plate skills, he could surprise and become a legit centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

The first 2004 draftee to reach the MLB was high school righty Sean Gallagher. Sean was a diamond in the rough when we drafted him, and he’s pitched like a first round pick. He’s the first 12th rounder pick to pitch in the MLB since Joel Piniero. For the time period, Gallagher is likely to be used as a long man out of the pen due to his versatile arm, quick recovery, and age The best thing it appears to be is for Gallagher to start the 2008 season in Iowa’s rotation not in the Cubs’ pen. That is unless Sean can win a starting rotation gig straight out of spring training which is a long shot.

Other 2004 draftees to keep an eye out on for is Mitch Atkins, Tim Layden, and Ryan Norwood. Atkins is really the biggest threat we have from the 2004 draft to reach the MLB anytime soon. Mitch has great stuff and solid control, and he destroyed Low A in 2006 and High A in 2007. He saw some action in AA in 2007 but was hit hard in his seven appearances, four being starts. Atkins will start the season in AA rotation and will likely see some action in AAA before the 2008 season is up.

Of the the ones we didn’t sign, there are three that have a good chance of reaching the MLB (Owings already has) in OF Eli Iorg (14) , RHP Micah Ownings (19) and RHP Casey Erickson (25). The Cubs’ selected Iorg, who has a family pedigree of professional baseball experience. Yet the two sides couldn’t come to a financial agreement as Iorg’s advisor felt Eli should receive near first round money, something Chicago wasn’t willing to pay. Still the Cubs watched him during the next year and tried working on him, offering him third round money just before the 2005 draft. Eli didn’t bite after having an amazing Senior year for Tennessee and was drafted by the Astros in the 2005 draft in the supplemental first round (38th overall). He’s played amazingly so far in the minors starting 2007 at High A where he was pounding the ball and was close to a promotion to AA. Yet his season came to a premature end due to a freak elbow injury while sliding back to first on a pickoff attempt. Iorg’s on the fast track though as the Astros love his work ethic and abilities that they see as are MLB transferable.

The Cubs’ 2004 19th pick, Micah Owings, has already reached the MLB and is starting for the Arizona Diamonbacks. When the Cubs’ selected Owings, they drafted one of the most versatile college players at the time. Micah could hit for average and power while throwing with velocity, control, and stuff on the mound. The Dbacks made the consensus choice and turned Owings into a pitcher and he blew through their minor league system and appeared in 29 games with 24 being starts. He turned out to be a big reason why Arizona made the playoffs, with his arm and his bat as hit 4 homers in 60 at bats. The 25 year old Owings is only going to get better with more experience, the Cubs definately missed the boat on this former Georgia Tech star and Eric Patterson teammate.

In the 25th round of 2004, the Cubs took a lefty in Chatham (IL) High Schooler Casey Erickson. Casey was touted as one of of Central Illinois’ top pitchers from his junior high days, and he didn’t disappoint as a high schooler. Erickson demolished the Central State Eight teams like no pitcher before him. As a senior his fastball hit 90-92 regularly topping at 95 mph, he also featured a plus 1-7 curveball with nasty drop. Casey wasn’t stupid, he learned young how to throw a changeup and that was his second pitch before his started ripping off curveballs repeatedly. Erickson wanted to sign with the Cubs, even though he’s a lifetime Cardinals’ fan yet the Cubs never gave him a decent offer. Casey went on to pitch in 2005 and 2006 for Springfield College of Illinois which features no real competition yet scouts still followed Erickson and he was drafted in 2006 by the Yankees in the 10th round. Personally, I haved faced Casey before and despite the age difference, he made this lefty hitter look absolutely foolish with his mixing of inside curveballs and outside fastballs. Still Casey has some mechanical issues that more advanced right handed hitters have exposed and the Yanks have worked on it with him. Yet New York scouts envision him as a future MLBer, whether it’s with them or not.

Posted by Bob Sacamento in Bob's View, Cubs News

6 Responses to “A look back at the 2004 Draft”

  1. Scartissue says:

    This is a great idea for a post! I hope you do this annually. The MLB draft is the complete opposite of the NBA draft–draft picks don’t make it on for several years and elite players are often drafted outside the top 5 in the first round. Talent evaluation in baseball is probably more important than any other sport with baseball’s salary structure and ability to get good players without high draft picks.

  2. ackidom4 says:

    Wow that was a really bad draft, only gallagher may be able to make a significant impact with the Cubs. The 05 draft is just as bad, but Wilken has turned it around since he took over in 06 so at least we have that to look forward to.

  3. Scartissue says:

    I don’t know that there’s a lot better that the Cubs could have done with the 2004 draft with their picks. It’s still early for 2004 draftees, but there weren’t many players you can point to even with the benefit of hindsight that were clearly better than the Cubs selections but were picked lower. Too bad Pedrioia was picked right before Johnson, but I don’t know that the Cubs would have chosen him if available anyway.

    If you use hindsight to criticize the Cubs’ 2005 draft, you’d find more ammo there. We drafted Pawelek ahead of Ellsbury, Buchholz, Escobar and Owings. Buchholz might be really something someday. Not sure I buy into Ellsbury just yet. Escobar was very impressive this year in limited time.

  4. Bob Sacamento says:

    Well Scar, I wrote a similar post two years ago about the 2002 Draft here . Your right, MLB drafts take years to see their fruits and three years might be a little early yet one can see the major trend or not. In this case, we had a poor draft and we haven’t got much out of them nor likely will. Gallagher is looking like our best bet as a staying force in the MLB from this draft.

    Could we have done better, yes, you can always do better. One would think that we’d get an impact player out of this draft but that isn’t likely to happen. Teams like Tampa Bay, Oakland, Boston, Toronto and quite a few others pulled at least one if not multiple players that are likely to impact MLBers.

    As for drafting Pedroia if he was still available, no, Jim wanted Grant Johnson and even if we had a first round pick, it’s feasible that Hendry would have taken him then. The 2005 draft review I’ll save for next year during the offseason so we have something to talk about. As for drafting Pawelek, it’s looking like it’s going to go down as one of our greatest flubs in quite awhile.

    Buy into Ellsbury, as he’s a natural leadoff hitter who plays plus defense in center. Ellsbury knows his role and plays to his skills, he doesn’t try powering pitches or unnecessaryly pulling pitches. He just takes what’s given to him.

  5. Scartissue says:

    I agree Ellsbury will be good. I just meant that I don’t think he’ll keep up his current offensive pace, which is even better than his minor league output. The way some people have gushed about him, it seems they think he’ll replicate his 2007 numbers in the future. In 33 games he hit 900 OPS, whereas I see him more in the high 700s to low 800s range going forward, which is still very good for a CF playing plus defense. He’s also stolen 9 bases without being caught for a pace of almost 50 SBs–that will either drop or he’ll get caught a lot more.

    I’m sure it’s possible to have done better in 2004, and although there are likely to be better players than the ones the Cubs drafted in 2004, I didn’t see any players that have shown that they will be stars of the caliber we missed out on in 2005.

  6. Bob Sacamento says:

    Jacob’s 2008 numbers won’t be what he posted in 2007 (.394/.509/.903), he’s more likely to post something closer to .370/.420/.790 during his full season. Still that’s nothing to shake a stick at as he provides solid D and is only going to get better plus is an ideal leadoff man. At his age now and with his skills, a .900 OPS is not out of the question in the very near future. His basestealing abilities come from his knack and knowing when to steal and his speed; he’s not a pure speed kinda guy, he’s cerebral.

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