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Walk Hard

April 28th, 2008

(This is a guest post by a good friend of mine, and perhaps future contributor, Andy Wright.) 

The Cubs hot start can be attributed to many different factors.  To name a few: Derrek Lee’s home runs, the arrival of Fukudome, or perhaps the club’s timely hitting in the late innings.  However, one factor that is less sexy and not often mentioned is the amount of walks the team is taking this year. 

The 113 bases on balls Chicago has produced this year ranks 4th most in the majors and 2nd in the NL.  This puts them on pace for 732 bases on balls over 162 games.  To put this anomaly in perspective, the Cubs finished with 500 BB last season, 395 BB in 2006, and a paltry 384 in 2005.  Furthermore, the team has not ranked in the top 20 in category since 2002. 

While newcomer Fukudome’s team-leading 19 BB may not be a huge surprise, two players that you may be shocked to find on first base this season are Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto.  Ramirez’s 15 BB put him on pace to double his previous career high of 50 BB in 2006.  Soto also has not been one to take pitches as his minor league high was 53 BB last season in Iowa. With 14 BB already, he is on pace to hit the century mark as well. 

If it is Fukudome’s arrival that has inspired A-Ram and Soto’s new-found patience, perhaps Fukudome should spend more time with Alfonso Soriano.  The atypical lead-off hitter has averaged 38 BB over his decade-long career and had just 4 before landing on the DL.  Felix Pie also could take some pointers in this regard as his minor league high was 46 BB in 2006.

 While Fukudome may deserve some credit, the man known for having little patience with umpires may have spawned the Cubs’ smaller strike zones.  Over at SportsMemo (here), Andrew Lange gives a great analysis of Sweet Lou’s ability to boost his teams’ OBP and walk totals.  In his decade long stretch as Seattle Mariners’ skipper from 1993-2002, the M’s ranked third in the majors in walks and OBP.  In his three year stint leading the dismal Devil Rays from 2003-2005, Tampa Bay improved their OBP ranking from 27th in the majors to 15th in his final season. (Lets not forget that they were an awful team.)

While the Cubs’ hot start in the win column is exciting for Chicago fans, it is comforting to find developing statistical trends that are enabling their success and should prolong the magical ‘08 season through early October.

Posted by Ryan Pierce in Ryan's View

2 Responses to “Walk Hard”

  1. Bob Sacamento says:

    The addition of the plate disciplined Fukudome and Johnson, might have had a little to do with the team walking more. I give Lou little to no credit at all for the walk rate but if you want someone to thank for the Cubs’ approach at the plate look no further than hitting coach Gerald Perry. Perry has guys buying into his system of the more you see the ball, the better you’ll hit it. He’s helped the strokes of nearly all of our players but no two more than Pie and Cedeno. Perry has Pie shortening his stroke, trying to poke liners and hit he ball on the ground. While Gerald’s had Ronny concentrating at hitting the ball up the middle and laying off the breaking balls/fouling them off if he can’t do anything with’m.

    As for Soto being high on this walks list, it shouldn’t surprised anyone. Soto was always known for his advanced plate skills in the minors. Just because his highest walks total was 53 but that was only in 449 plate appearances. His great walk rate has helped him to a .078 OBP-AVG differential in his minor league career.

  2. A J Clay says:

    Well if you give Lou “little to no credit at all” for the walk rate, but look no further than the hitting coach.

    Then I say give Lou “TOTAL CREDIT” for hiring Gerald Perry as the hitting coach.

    It is true in management. The manager always takes the blame for the failures but none of the credit for the success.

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