UPDATE (7/7) - I called someone I used to run into from time to time while on my Fox Sports internship covering the Iowa Cubs, someone who I greatly respect and trust for information on the Cubs, and they’ve confirmed that the Cubs have been looking into Rich Harden for a while now, perhaps for the better part of a month.

UPDATE x 2 (7/7) - Chris De Luca chimes in, confirming that the Cubs have at least kicked the tires on Harden, saying “The Cubs have spent a lot of time on the phone recently with Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane trying to pry away right-hander Rich Harden. Expect the phone lines to start burning a little hotter beginning today.”

As Bob said (here), the trade market is about to heat up for the Chicago Cubs. The fact that the Brewers just traded for C.C Sabathia and took over a slim percentage points lead in the wild card race isnt nearly as scary as the fact that Sabathia will join Ben Sheets at the top of the rotation for a team that is only 3.5 games back of the Cubs, who have the best record in the NL.

July 7th should have been a great day for Cubs fans, an off-day to celebrate a series victory of the 2nd place (at the time) St. Louis Cardinals that saw the Cubs have a chance for a sweep and an additional game between the Cubs and the rest of the NL Central. Instead, just hours after the Cubs beat the Cardinals in convincing fashion, 7-1, the news around the North Side had shifted from blowouts and all-star selections and focused on the Brewers adding the 2007 AL Cy Young award winner. Think that wont put a thorn in the side of Jim Hendry? If so, you’re wrong. Reports are saying that the Cubs will step up their pursuit of a starter, and here at CubsHub we think it’d be a good idea to give Cubs fans a good idea of who’s available and what they might bring to the Cubs.

Up today, A’s pitcher Rich Harden.

Most people who talk about Harden say two things… he’s got great ’stuff’ and he’s an injury risk.

STUFF

As for his arsenal, its described as ‘nasty, filthy, and sick’ by the hardball times (here) in an article that discusses his delivery and mechanics. In the article (which is a great read if you’re looking for Harden info that isnt statistics and things) Carlos Gomez (the author) suggests a few tweaks to Harden’s delivery, though no real suggestion of a change with his arm action. Instead he suggests that Harden start to drift towards the place more to develop force earlier in his delivery. I’m not going to get into too much of it, as its a great article worth a read.

INJURY HISTORY - As I said, a lot of people are concerned with Harden’s injury history, but lets give it a quick look at see what it really means.

May 2005 - Strained left oblique
April 2006 - Sprained back muscle
June 2006 - Ligament sprain, right elbow
April 2007 - Right Shoulder strain
July 2007 - Right Shoulder strain
April 2008 - Right Shoulder strain

His first few trips to the DL seem to be small muscle strains or sprains, which might be a result of poor personal training or just fluke situations. A common trend is that he has been on the DL each of the past three seasons for strains in April, which would tend to show that its more than likely a poor off-season or spring training workout that has caused some of these issues.

His worst injury, the ligament sprain, came on June 8, 2006, after his first start following a minor league rehab assignment following a short stint on the DL for his sprained back muscle. That season Harden threw 499 pitches in five April starts before being placed on the DL, and it seems that perhaps he was overworked that April before the back injury and his arm flared out on his first start back. Its altogether possible that he might have just tried to get a little too much force on a throw during his return from the DL, that his injury altered his delivery to the point that it caused strain on the elbow, or a host of other reasons. Harden has yet to experience another elbow issue, which more than likely means that it was more of a one time thing.

As for the shoulder strains that have been an issue for the past couple of seasons, another Cubs pitcher had the same issue and returned from the DL recently to throw strikes against the Cardinals. Obviously its hard to tell how Zambrano will hold up for the rest of the season, but from the sounds of it the strain wasnt as serious as it seemed and more than likely didnt require a DL stint (other than that Lou thought Carlos would try to talk his way back into the rotation to face the Sox). Various position players have seen time on the DL because of shoulder strains and missed little time, including catcher Mike Piazza and DH Travis Hafner.

For pitchers, its a bit different as we’ve seen in the past. Zambrano came back after missing 14 games, but another Cubs pitcher who had a shoulder strain of a slightly different type (specifically a right subscapularis strain) was out from late March until late May before beginning a rehab assignment during the 2006 season. 

This player, if you hadnt already guessed, is Mark Prior. The two have somewhat similar career paths, in that they had awkward and unpredictable injuries early in their career (Harden had strains and sprains, Prior had an inflamed right achilles in 2004, though that was later attributed to a less than stellar medical staff for the Cubs if I remember correctly) and then had fairly serious injuries later in their careers (the strained joint for Harden, shoulder tendinitis that led to surgery). Both were dominant pitchers, able to change a game, and both had a reputation for having great ability and potential.

This is where the similarities stop. Cubs fans will more than likely link the two, given that both have had injury issues, but thats very unfair to Harden who has only had one mildly serious injury, the joint strain, and otherwise had minor strains. Prior, on the other hand, had shoulder issues that worsened to the point that he required surgery multiple times. This is NOT the case for Harden, though Cubs fans might think otherwise. Harden HAS missed time due to strains, yes, but has yet to require surgery.

WHY HARDEN?

Three very simple reasons.
1.) The Cubs would be greatly improved for the stretch run and possible playoff run with an upgrade to the rotation and the subsequent moves to Gallagher and Marshall.
2.) Harden has the best upside of any pitcher believed to be available via trade.
3.) The Cubs would hold a team option on Harden, allowing them to retain Harden after this season if they’d like, for just $7 MM. Compared to what he would make on the free agent market, this is a steal of a deal for the Cubs. (Note: The Cubs could decline Harden’s option for some reason and he’d then go to arbitration with the Cubs, if the Cubs acquired him.)

WHY NOT HARDEN?

I realize that a majority of this has been very positive in regards to getting Rich Harden, but there are obvious downsides as well. In no particular order, they’d include his injury history and the amount it would take to get the A’s to consider trading him. Any deal would more than likely need to fall somewhere between what it took for Sabathia (a solid OF prospect and 3 other low level prospects) and Danny Haren (a gold-mine of talented prospects).Lets rehash what Bob has said about a few of our younger players…
     “Felix isn’t the only prospect that will be shopped around as our two most MLB ready pitching chips in RHP Sean Gallagher and 2B Tony Thomas, LHP Donald Veal, and RHP Jose Ascanio are some of our other bait. That cast could net a midlevel pitcher but nothing of the caliber of Sabathia. If the Cubs want something big, they have to give up something big. The biggest question the organization has is whether or not to make 3B Josh Vitters, the third overall pick in the 2007 draft, available in deals. Without question, he is our most watched and most asked about prospect. The last time the Cubs traded their previous year’s first round pick was in 1998 when the Cubs traded the 1997 10th overall pick RHP Jon Garland to the WhiteSox for RHP reliever Matt Karchner.”

VERDICT (my opinion):I think that the Cubs should try to land Harden. Yes, the A’s will want more than what the Indians asked for when trading Sabathia, but the Cubs would also be landing a pitcher for more than just half a season. It would also give the Cubs one of the best starters in the game, when healthy, which he currently appears to be. In 13 starts he’s been able to go 5-1 with a 3:1 K:BB ratio, and anytime you add a player like this to a rotation it will make a considerable difference. (For what its worth, he’s 0-1 in playoff starts. In his only career playoff start, in 2006, he gave up 3ER, 5 hits, and 5 walks in a loss to eventual AL Champion Detroit Tigers.)